Sunday, March 18, 2007

2007 Shortstop Rankings

2007 Top 15 Shortstop Rankings


Jose Reyes

1. Jose Reyes, New York Mets

2006 stats: .300 average, 647 at-bats, 122 runs, 19 home runs, 81 RBI, 30 doubles, 17 triples, 64 stolen bases, 53 walks, 81 strikeouts, 153 games

2007 outlook: The 23 year-old Reyes improved his pitch selectivity and his walk/strikeout ratio, resulting in a 27-point increase in his batting average (.300) and a 54-point jump in his OBP. Reyes also crushed 19 home runs and drove in 81 runs. His home run total more than doubled his 2005 total and he matched his ridiculous triples total from 2005 with 17. He became the first Major League player to steal at least 60 bases in back-to-back seasons since Kenny Lofton accomplished the feat in 1993 and 1994. Look for more of the same from Reyes in 2007 with further advancement of his power numbers.

2. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees

2006 stats: .344 average, 623 at-bats, 118 runs, 14 home runs, 97 RBI, 39 doubles, 3 triples, 34 stolen bases, 69 walks, 102 strikeouts, 154 games

2007 outlook: Jeter posted a phenomenal season for the Yankees in 2006, perhaps his best ever. He set new career marks in doubles (39), stolen bases (34) and batting average (.344) while posting his highest RBI total since 1999 (97). The Yankees will undoubtedly rank among the league's highest-scoring lineups, with Jeter leading the attack. He has played in 148 or more games in 10 of his 11 Major League seasons, delivering 100 or more runs 10 times and double-digit home runs and stolen bases in 11 consecutive seasons with a career .317 batting average.

3. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore Orioles

2006 stats: .330 average, 648 at-bats, 99 runs, 24 home runs, 100 RBI, 37 doubles, 0 triples, 6 stolen bases, 46 walks, 79 strikeouts, 162 games

2007 outlook: Tejada is becoming the new definition of "Iron Man" in Baltimore. He has now played in every game for six consecutive seasons and has not appeared in fewer than 159 games since 1998. He's averaged 28 home runs and 112 RBI per season for the past eight years. Tejada also established a new career mark with a .330 batting average in 2006. His power numbers declined slightly, but much of that can be attributed to his supporting cast. The Orioles added Aubrey Huff and Jay Payton to bolster the heart of the order, and that should allow Tejada to see better pitches. Expect .300-25-100.

4. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies

2006 stats: .277 average, 689 at-bats, 127 runs, 25 home runs, 83 RBI, 45 doubles, 9 triples, 36 stolen bases, 57 walks, 80 strikeouts, 158 games

2007 outlook: In 2006, Rollins established new career marks in runs (127), doubles (45), RBI (83), and home runs (25). He has played in 154 games or more the last six seasons. Rollins has averaged 38 doubles, 14 home runs and 34 stolen bases for the past six seasons and is just now hitting his power prime. Expect big things for Rollins in 2007 hitting in the potent Phillies lineup and hitter friendly ball park.

5. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins

2006 stats: .292 average, 633 at-bats, 119 runs, 17 home runs, 59 RBI, 46 doubles, 11 triples, 51 stolen bases, 56 walks, 128 strikeouts, 158 games

2007 outlook: In 2006, Ramirez won the National League Rookie of the Year. He was expected to offer speed, batting average and runs, but nobody could have expected him to generate 17 home runs and 74 extra-base hits as a rookie. The 23-year old rookie improved as the season progressed (his batting average rose 51 points) and he hit an impressive .282 at home (Dolphins Stadium). The core is there for the Marlins to score runs, and Ramirez will only get better with time. Expect Ramirez to continue making strides in the plate discipline department (128 whiffs) and end up with .300-20-70 with 50 steals in 2007.

6. Michael Young, Texas Rangers

2006 stats: .314 average, 691 at-bats, 93 runs, 14 home runs, 103 RBI, 52 doubles, 3 triples, 7 stolen bases, 48 walks, 96 strikeouts, 162 games

2007 outlook: Young has been one of the most consistent players at shortstop over the past four years. He has hit .300 or higher in four consecutive seasons with 204 or more base hits in each season, while only missing a total of seven games. Young notched new career-highs in doubles (52) and RBI (103) in 06. The Rangers retain one of the most explosive lineups in the game, and have one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the Major Leagues. Expect 15-20 HR, 90 RBI, .300 plus.

7. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers

2006 stats: .300 average, 654 at-bats, 113 runs, 15 home runs, 63 RBI, 32 doubles, 9 triples, 37 stolen bases, 73 walks, 98 strikeouts, 159 games

2007 outlook: Furcal thrived in new surroundings playing for the Dodgers in 2006. He played in a career-high 159 games and established new career highs in RBI (63) and batting average (.300) and tied his career high with 15 home runs. Furcal scored 100 runs for the fourth consecutive season and swiped 37 bases. He has seven consecutive seasons with at least 22 steals. Furcal has reached double-digit home runs in four consecutive seasons as well, and 12 of his 15 home runs in 2006 came at Dodger Stadium. He also hit at a .333 clip in the home park, which should lead to another solid season in 2007.

8. Carlos Guillen, Detroit Tigers

2006 stats: .320 average, 543 at-bats, 100 runs, 19 home runs, 85 RBI, 41 doubles, 5 triples, 20 stolen bases, 71 walks, 87 strikeouts, 153 games

2007 outlook: Guillen rebounded impressively from his injury-plagued 2005 season with an effort similar to his 2004 breakout season. He hit .320 to rank fourth among qualifying shortstops and slammed 65 extra-base hits, including a career-high 41 doubles. Guillen swiped a career-high 20 bases on 29 attempts. The Tigers return all of the firepower from the World Series squad and added slugger Gary Sheffield in the off-season. In this lineup, Guillen will match his power and speed numbers and likely notch his first 100-RBI campaign.

9. Bill Hall, Milwaukee Brewers

2006 stats: .270 average, 537 at-bats, 101 runs, 35 home runs, 85 RBI, 39 doubles, 4 triples, 8 stolen bases, 63 walks, 162 strikeouts, 148 games

2007 outlook: Hall doubled his power production in 2006 with 35 home runs to lead all shortstops and also notched new career-high marks in runs (101) and RBI (85). Unfortunately, Hall regressed in his batting average (down 21 points) and stolen bases (down 10) and watched his strikeout rate rise markedly (162). Hall struck out 59 more times than in 2005 in only 36 more at-bats. That's one area of concern for Brewers management and will be the focal point of his off-season and spring training workouts. He should improve his contact rate and cut down on the K's, but it could lead to a drop in his HR total.

10. Felipe Lopez, Washington Nationals

2006 stats: .274 average, 617 at-bats, 98 runs, 11 home runs, 52 RBI, 27 doubles, 3 triples, 44 stolen bases, 81 walks, 126 strikeouts, 156 games

2007 outlook: Lopez moved to Washington from Cincinnati during the 2006 season, and his power numbers predictably fell (23 in 2005 to 11 in 2006). However, Lopez continued to produce a solid batting average (.281 for Washington) and stole 21 bases to bring his season total to 44. His main value for fantasy owners in 2007 will come via his legs, as it's unlikely that he finds a big boost in the power game at RFK Stadium. Expect him to hit into the gaps and top 30 doubles with 30 stolen bases and 90-100 runs scores. In most fantasy leagues he should be eligible at SS and 2B.

11. Julio Lugo, Boston Red Sox

2006 stats: .278 average, 435 at-bats, 69 runs, 12 home runs, 37 RBI, 22 doubles, 2 triples, 24 stolen bases, 39 walks, 76 strikeouts, 122 games

2007 outlook: Lugo assumes the reins in Boston after splitting the 2006 season between the Devil Rays and Dodgers. He struggled terribly with the Dodgers, hitting a weak .219 with zero home runs after achieving a .308 clip with 12 home runs for the Devil Rays. Lugo moves to a more hitter-friendly environment for 2007, so we can discount his 49 games with the Dodgers to some degree. Lugo has stolen 21 or more bases in three consecutive seasons with an average of 45 extra-base hits. He should post decent numbers hitting at the top of the Red Sox lineup.

12. Edgar Renteria, Atlanta Braves

2006 stats: .293 average, 598 at-bats, 100 runs, 14 home runs, 70 RBI, 40 doubles, 2 triples, 17 stolen bases, 62 walks, 89 strikeouts, 149 games

2007 outlook: Renteria went back to the National League in 2006, and regained his comfort zone in Atlanta. He has played in an average of 150 games since 1999 with seven double-digit home run and stolen base seasons. Playing in Atlanta, Renteria nearly doubled his stolen base total from his one season in Boston (from nine to 17). He achieved his highest home run total since 2000 and reached 70 RBI for the fifth consecutive year. Expect similiar numbers in 2007, .288 with 15 home runs, 15-20 stolen bases, 70-80 RBI and 100 runs scored.

13. Orlando Cabrera, Los Angeles Angels

2006 stats: .282 average, 607 at-bats, 95 runs, 9 home runs, 72 RBI, 45 doubles, 1 triple, 27 stolen bases, 51 walks, 58 strikeouts, 153 games

2007 outlook: Cabrera improved in his second season in Los Angeles, raising his batting average by 25 points to .282 with 45 doubles. He has stolen 19 or more bases in four of the past five seasons. Cabrera is durable, he has played in 141 or more games in six consecutive years. He has an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio and last season tied his career high with 95 runs scored. Expect .280-10-70 with 90 runs scored and 20 plus steals.

14. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks

2006 stats: .316 average, 209 at-bats, 27 runs, 5 home runs, 23 RBI, 13 doubles, 7 triples, 2 stolen bases, 14 walks, 50 strikeouts, 59 games

2007 outlook: Drew played in 59 games as a rookie with the Diamondbacks we got a glimpse of just how effective he can be in the second half of the 2006 campaign. Drew hit for a strong .316 batting average with 25 extra-base hits in 209 at-bats, which projects to a strong full season. He hit .364 in 31 home games. At 23 years of age and with only 59 Major League games under his belt, predicting numbers is tough, but the future is bright for Drew. He is worth taking as a late round sleeper.

15. Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians

2006 stats: .257 average, 569 at-bats, 84 runs, 13 home runs, 68 RBI, 28 doubles, 3 triples, 0 stolen bases, 56 walks, 152 strikeouts, 149 games

2007 outlook: Expectations were high for Peralta after his phenomenal 2005 season, and those owners who nabbed him early were left disappointed. His batting averaged dropped 35 points from 2005 and his home run output dropped by half. He did finish the year with a respectable 44 extra-base hits and 68 RBI. The Indians will should score a lot of runs in 2007, which will help Peralta's stats. Additionally, after struggling with blurry vision in 2006, Peralta underwent eye surgery to correct the problem in December. He resisted suggestions to wear contact lenses for almost the entire 2006 season, but he finally caved in and produced a .348 batting average over a seven-game stretch to finish the year. Granted, that is a small sample, but the 24 year-old could rebound in 2007 now that he can actually see the ball.

The best of the rest...

16. Freddy Sanchez, Pittsburgh Pirates
17. Bobby Crosby, Oakland Athletics
18. Yuniesky Betancourt, Seattle Mariners
19. Khalil Greene, San Diego Padres
20. Omar Vizquel, San Francisco Giants
21. Jason Bartlett, Minnesota Twins
22. Rich Aurilia, San Francisco Giants
23. J.J. Hardy, Milwaukee Brewers
24. Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays
25. Juan Uribe, Chicago White Sox